Americans identifying as LGBTQ+

As more Americans have identified as LGBTQ+, the global democracy index has declined, a negative correlation of -0.981 that at first glance appears to suggest that identity expression and democracy are at odds. They are not. What the chart actually captures is two trends moving in opposite directions during the same decade: one measuring progress in personal freedom within America, the other measuring the retreat of democratic governance worldwide. Progress and decline, measured from different angles of the same planet.

LGBTQ+ identification grew from about 3.5 percent to over 7.6 percent between 2012 and 2023. The Democracy Index world average declined from about 5.49 to about 5.23 as democratic backsliding occurred globally. The correlation is driven by their opposite directions: one up (identity expression in a liberalizing US), one down (democracy worldwide). The United States itself contributed to both trends—it became more socially liberal while its own democratic health, as rated by the Economist, deteriorated.

Twelve years of LGBTQ+ identification and democracy decline is a correlation that captures the paradox of the 2010s: individual freedoms expanded in some countries while institutional democracy contracted globally. The identity is expressed, the index falls, and the chart records both as a world that is simultaneously more free for some people and less free for most. The closet opens in one country. The ballot box closes in another.