US pet industry spending

Between 2005 and 2022, US pet industry spending and nutrition bar sales rose at a correlation of 0.97, confirming what any observer of urban life could have told you for free: the person buying a $4 protein bar is the same person who bought organic kibble for the rescue greyhound. Both markets have successfully convinced their customers that spending more on food is an act of care rather than luxury. The greyhound and the consumer are both, in their own way, thriving.

US pet industry spending grew from roughly $36 billion in 2005 to over $120 billion by 2022, encompassing food, veterinary care, accessories, and services, all driven by pet humanization and rising ownership. US nutrition and energy bar sales grew from about $2 billion to over $9 billion over the same period, as the category expanded from athletic nutrition into mainstream snacking with the growth of brands like KIND, RXBar, and Clif. Both categories are driven by health-conscious affluent consumers, demographic growth among wellness-oriented millennials, and premiumization across food markets.

Two premium food categories targeting the same value system — health, care, quality over convenience — will tend to move together because they share a wallet and a worldview. The correlation describes a market segment more than it describes a mystery.