Spam canned meat salesUS pet food total market sales
There is something peculiar about the universe's decision to bind the sales of mechanically separated pork product to the kibble consumption habits of American dogs with the grip of a 0.952 correlation coefficient, as if both represented some deeper truth about our species rather than two entirely separate markets responding to entirely separate stimuli. We have somehow managed to create a cosmic conspiracy involving neither conspirators nor cosmos. One wonders if the universe is laughing or merely curious.
Both series tell the same pantry story from different shelves. Early-2020 lockdowns triggered mass stockpiling of shelf-stable protein — Spam had its best year in memory — and the same households simultaneously brought home new pets and bulk-bought kibble. Two aisles, one very nervous spring.
What we have here is not a mysterious truth but rather a reminder that correlation is essentially a very patient game of pattern-matching played by humans who have forgotten that the universe contains multitudes of unrelated things that simply happen to move in the same direction. The spam-and-kibble synchrony tells us almost nothing about either product except that both benefited from the same underlying economic currents. Which should perhaps make us slightly more skeptical the next time two graphs start moving together like synchronized swimmers. Or slightly less. Hard to say.
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Want to learn more about why correlations like “Spam canned meat sales” vs “US pet food total market sales” don't prove causation? Read our guide to statistical thinking.