Pumpkin spice products on shelves

Over twenty-one years, from 2002 to 2022, US pet food sales and pumpkin spice products on shelves grew together with an r of 0.9662, and if you think the pet food industry has not noticed, you have not seen the pumpkin spice dog treats at PetSmart. This is the rare correlation that predicted its own product line. The American consumer, having decided that autumn should taste like cinnamon and nutmeg, extended that conviction to every member of the household including the ones who eat from bowls on the floor. The dogs do not appear to have strong feelings about seasonal flavoring, but they are getting it anyway.

US pet food sales grew from roughly $15 billion in 2002 to over $42 billion by 2022, driven by pet humanization, premium product lines, and increasing pet ownership among millennials. Pumpkin spice products expanded from a single Starbucks offering in 2003 to thousands of SKUs across food, beverages, and—yes—pet products by the 2020s. Both trends reflect the premiumization of consumer goods and the willingness of American consumers to pay more for perceived quality and novelty. The 21-year window is long enough that any two consistently growing consumer markets will correlate strongly.

Twenty-one data points of two retail categories both riding the premiumization wave will always produce a convincing correlation. That pumpkin spice dog treats actually exist makes this one feel less spurious and more prophetic, but the statistics remain unmoved.