Volcanic eruptions worldwide

As TikTok downloads have exploded, volcanic eruptions worldwide have also increased, a correlation of 0.991 across six data points that suggests either that the earth's crust is responding to dance trends or that two things going up between 2018 and 2023 will always correlate no matter how absurd the pairing. The app erupts with content, the volcano erupts with lava, and the chart erupts with a coefficient that has more confidence than sample size.

TikTok downloads grew from about 400 million in 2018 to over 3 billion cumulative by 2023. Volcanic eruptions worldwide increased modestly, from about 65 to over 80 per year, partly due to improved monitoring and reporting. Six data points of two growing metrics will always produce a high correlation, and neither the geological forces driving volcanism nor the algorithmic forces driving TikTok adoption are aware of the other's existence. The earth's mantle does not have a For You page.

Six data points of TikTok and volcanoes is a correlation that should come with a sample-size warning label. The app downloads because the algorithm is effective, the volcano erupts because plate tectonics is relentless, and the chart connects them with the misplaced confidence of a coefficient built on barely any data. The content goes viral. The lava goes downhill. Neither checks the other's feed.