As Super Bowl ad costs have grown, US cheese imports have grown, a correlation of 0.980 that connects America's most expensive airtime to America's most delicious imports with the premium confidence of a chart that treats a seven-million-dollar commercial and a wheel of Parmigiano-Reggiano as equivalent luxury purchases. Both cost more every year, both are consumed by millions of Americans at the same time, and both are best experienced during a game day party.
Super Bowl ads grew from about 2.5 million to over 7 million per spot between 2005 and 2022. Cheese imports grew from about 250,000 to over 430,000 metric tons. Both are measures of premium spending in a growing economy: the Super Bowl is the premium advertising event, and imported cheese is the premium dairy product. Both scale with GDP, both serve the affluent consumer, and both get more expensive every year because scarcity (ad slots) and quality (artisan cheese) command premiums.
Eighteen years of Super Bowl ads and cheese imports is a premiumization story: both metrics measure what happens when a wealthy nation decides it wants the best version of everything—the best advertising exposure, the best cheese—and is willing to pay accordingly. The spot costs seven million, the Gruyère costs twenty dollars, and both are consumed on Super Bowl Sunday. The game is on. The board is set. The correlation is aged to perfection.
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Want to learn more about why correlations like “US cheese imports” vs “Super Bowl 30-second ad cost” don't prove causation? Read our guide to statistical thinking.
