It is a curious feature of the human mind that it will notice two completely independent phenomena—one involving electric cars zipping around suburban driveways, the other involving rockets leaving the planet—and cheerfully assume that Elon Musk's enthusiasm for both must somehow be a causal relationship rather than what it almost certainly is: two separate expressions of the same underlying economic conditions, both happening to accelerate at roughly the same rate while the universe watches with indifference. The correlation is 0.959, which is to say nearly perfect, which is to say almost certainly meaningless.
What's actually happening is rather more mundane and rather more interesting. Both Tesla deliveries and SpaceX launches track almost exactly with the broader expansion of venture capital into tech between 2015 and 2023, itself driven by rock-bottom interest rates, climate anxiety, and a cultural consensus that the future must be purchased rather than merely waited for. The global economy grew by roughly 2 percent annually during this period, wealth concentrated further into the hands of people who could afford $80,000 vehicles and had the spare capital to fund space companies, and battery production capacity—which constrains both domains equally—roughly tripled. You're not watching causation; you're watching two rivers that happen to feed from the same reservoir.
The real lesson here is not about Musk's omnipresence in American tech culture, though he is certainly present, but about how eagerly we construct narratives from numbers that happen to move together. We see 96 percent correlation and our brains immediately begin building stories about destiny and synergy and the inevitable march of innovation. Neither of these things caused the other; they both responded to the same invisible hand. Which is either comforting or deeply unsettling, depending on your philosophy.
As an Amazon Associate, getspurious.com earns from qualifying purchases. Learn more.
Want to learn more about why correlations like “Tesla vehicles delivered” vs “SpaceX launches per year” don't prove causation? Read our guide to statistical thinking.