Pumpkin spice products on shelves

The annual parade of pumpkin spice products through American grocery stores and the global delivery of Tesla vehicles have climbed in lockstep between 2015 and 2022 (r = 0.959), which is the kind of correlation that sounds like a sketch comedy premise but is, distressingly, real. One is a seasonal marketing invention; one is an automotive revolution. Both arrive, now, with the same punctuality.

The pumpkin spice SKU count on American shelves rose from around 100 in 2015 to over 500 by 2022, with the category now including yogurt, dog treats, hummus, and at least one brand of Greek feta; Tesla deliveries grew from 50,000 to over 1.3 million in the same window, with the Model Y becoming the world's best-selling car by 2023. Both are stories of brand saturation into niches that didn't previously exist, carried by millennials willing to pay a premium for a cultural moment — a September latte or an electric crossover — that also felt like identity. Both are, for better or worse, no longer novelties.

The latte foams. The Supercharger clicks. Fall arrives on schedule. So does the next Tesla.