Pumpkin spice products on shelves

From 2002 to 2022, the number of pumpkin spice products on shelves and the cost of a Super Bowl 30-second ad rose together at an r of 0.9745, which is either a commentary on American capitalism or proof that Starbucks and the NFL have been secretly coordinating. Super Bowl ad costs grew from roughly $2 million to $7 million per 30 seconds, while pumpkin spice SKUs multiplied from a handful to several thousand. Both numbers are, frankly, too large for what is essentially autumn-flavored fear of mortality.

Both metrics are proxies for the same underlying variable: the inflation-adjusted willingness of American corporations to pay for mass cultural attention. Super Bowl ad pricing is set by supply and demand for the last remaining truly mass broadcast audience, which grew in perceived value as digital fragmentation made other audiences harder to aggregate. Pumpkin spice product proliferation tracks the same logic — companies learned that a cultural moment, once established, can be extended across product categories to capture consumer affinity spending. Both grew as marketing budgets inflated and brand culture intensified.

America does not just consume pumpkin spice and football — it uses them as containers for collective feeling. The prices rise because the feelings, however manufactured, are real.