Pumpkin spice products on shelvesCraft distilleries in the US
As pumpkin spice products have multiplied, craft distilleries have grown, a correlation of 0.982 that connects autumnal flavoring to artisanal spirits with the premiumization confidence of two trends that both serve the same "I care about what I consume" demographic. Pumpkin spice bourbon exists. It probably sells well. This correlation may be partly measuring the same product from two categories, which makes it the second "secretly the same product" entry on this site after pumpkin spice candles.
Pumpkin spice products grew from about 60 to over 150 SKUs. Craft distilleries grew from about 200 to over 2,500. Both are eighteen-year premiumization trends: pumpkin spice because seasonal products generate buzz, distilleries because consumers want distinctive spirits. The overlap is more than demographic—pumpkin spice bourbon and pumpkin spice cocktails are real products that exist at the intersection of both datasets.
Eighteen years of pumpkin spice and craft distilleries is a premiumization correlation with a real product overlap: pumpkin spice bourbon is a thing, craft pumpkin spice cocktails are a thing, and both trends serve the same consumer who believes that seasonal flavoring makes everything better. The spice is added. The proof is measured. The bartender is an artist.
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Want to learn more about why correlations like “Pumpkin spice products on shelves” vs “Craft distilleries in the US” don't prove causation? Read our guide to statistical thinking.