Per capita cheese consumption in the US

Over 21 years, from 2002 to 2022, Americans ate more cheese per person every year, and the cost of a 30-second Super Bowl advertisement increased in almost perfect lockstep, with a correlation of 0.97. The television industry has not yet proposed cheese consumption as a ratings metric, but perhaps it should. One imagines the negotiations: 'We're seeing strong Brie numbers in the 18-49 demographic. That'll be $7 million for thirty seconds.'

US per capita cheese consumption has grown steadily for decades, from about 30 pounds per person in 2002 to over 40 pounds by 2022, driven by the proliferation of cheese in fast food, prepared meals, and restaurant menu items. Super Bowl ad costs have grown from $2.2 million per 30 seconds in 2002 to $6.5 million by 2022, tracking a combination of TV audience resilience (the Super Bowl is one of the last mass simultaneous viewing events), inflation, and advertiser competition. Both are slow, steady growth curves in a large, mature market — the most reliable recipe for a high r-value.

Slow, steady, multi-decade trends in large markets will correlate with almost anything else that exhibits the same patience. Cheese and advertising share only one trait: both have been growing for so long that their correlation is less a discovery than an accounting error.