As the US adult smoking rate has declined, babies named Khaleesi have increased, a negative correlation of -0.983 that suggests either that fantasy television is replacing nicotine or that both trends measure the same cultural shift: a younger generation choosing different addictions. The cigarette goes out, the baby is named after the Mother of Dragons, and the chart traces the decline of one form of fire and the rise of another.
The US smoking rate declined from about 19 percent in 2011 to under 12 percent by 2018, as anti-smoking campaigns and e-cigarettes reduced traditional cigarette use. Khaleesi babies grew from zero to several hundred per year as Game of Thrones dominated culture. One declines, the other rises, eight data points, negative correlation. The smokers and the baby-namers are different demographics, but the trends share a generational story: the same young adults who do not smoke are the ones naming their children after television characters.
Eight years of fewer smokers and more Khaleesis is a generational portrait: the generation that quit cigarettes named its children after a fictional queen who commands fire-breathing dragons. The irony is not lost on the chart, which records both trends with the detached precision of a coefficient that has never touched a cigarette or watched HBO. The flame goes out. The dragon breathes fire. The correlation is perfectly inverted.
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Want to learn more about why correlations like “Smoking rate among US adults” vs “Babies named Khaleesi” don't prove causation? Read our guide to statistical thinking.
