Active geocaches worldwideUS gluten-free product sales
As geocaches have multiplied worldwide, American gluten-free product sales have grown with near-perfect correspondence, a correlation of 0.986 that connects hiding containers in the woods to avoiding wheat in the grocery store with the niche-hobby confidence of two activities that both peaked on the same internet. The cache is hidden, the gluten is avoided, and both activities are practiced by people who would describe themselves as "health-conscious adventurers" without irony.
Active geocaches grew from about 600,000 to over 3 million between 2008 and 2022. Gluten-free sales grew from about 1.5 billion to over 7 billion dollars. Both trends track the same smartphone-enabled, wellness-oriented consumer: geocaching requires a GPS app, and gluten-free shopping requires reading labels that the same smartphone can scan. Both activities appeal to people who enjoy optimization—of outdoor recreation and of dietary intake—and both grew as the smartphone made both activities more accessible.
Fifteen years of geocaches and gluten-free products is a portrait of the smartphone-era wellness consumer: someone who uses technology to find hidden things in the forest and avoid hidden things in the bread. The cache is located, the wheat is eliminated, and the chart connects both through the same rectangular device. The coordinates are shared. The ingredients are checked. The demographic is identical.
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Want to learn more about why correlations like “Active geocaches worldwide” vs “US gluten-free product sales” don't prove causation? Read our guide to statistical thinking.