USPS mail carrier dog bite incidents

As the United States has imported more cheese, fewer mail carriers have been bitten by dogs, a correlation that raises the tantalizing possibility that cheese is being used to distract the dogs while the mail is delivered. The coefficient is -0.928 across seven years, which is strong enough to justify a pilot program and small enough in sample size to guarantee it would never get funded. One imagines a USPS training video: "When approaching a hostile yard, deploy the brie."

US cheese imports have grown steadily as American palates have shifted toward specialty and European cheeses that domestic producers do not yet make at scale—imports grew from about 380,000 metric tons in 2016 to over 430,000 by 2022. USPS dog bite incidents declined from about 6,755 to roughly 5,300 during the same period, driven by reduced mail volume (as digital communication replaced physical mail) and improved safety training for carriers. The cheese did not pacify the dogs. Instead, both trends track the same underlying shift: the internet reduced physical mail delivery (fewer encounters with dogs) while simultaneously enabling specialty cheese imports through online retailers. The smartphone is, once again, the invisible hand.

Seven data points of cheese imports rising and dog bites declining is a correlation that practically begs for a causal story and absolutely does not deserve one. The cheese arrives, the dogs stand down, and the connection between them is nothing more than an economy moving online. The brie is imported, the mail is digital, and the dog is confused by both.