From 2010 to 2022, the US national debt grew from roughly $13 trillion to $31 trillion, while the average pint of lager in the UK grew from about £2.87 to £4.57. The correlation of 0.9749 suggests these are, at minimum, spiritual companions. The most parsimonious explanation is that British pub landlords have been quietly monitoring C-SPAN and adjusting their prices accordingly. Alternatively, both nations are simply doing their best in difficult circumstances.
Both series are fundamentally inflation and monetary expansion trackers. US national debt grows almost mechanically through annual deficit spending, accelerated by stimulus packages in 2009, 2020, and 2021. UK pint prices track input costs — grain, energy, labor, property — all of which are downstream of the same global monetary conditions, supply chain disruptions, and energy price shocks that expanded debt across Western economies. The 2020-2022 period saw both metrics lurch upward in response to pandemic-era fiscal intervention.
Inflation leaves evidence everywhere, from sovereign balance sheets to the chalkboard above the tap. If you want to understand macroeconomics, the price of a pint is as honest a gauge as any Treasury report.
As an Amazon Associate, getspurious.com earns from qualifying purchases. Learn more.
Want to learn more about why correlations like “US national debt” vs “UK average pint of lager price” don't prove causation? Read our guide to statistical thinking.
