US cigarette consumptionSwimming pool drowning deaths in the US
As America smoked fewer cigarettes between 2005 and 2015, America also, somewhat surprisingly, drowned in its swimming pools at a declining rate, and the two curves have moved together (r = 0.958) in what seems to be a small, unannounced victory for the Great American Retreat from Risk. We quit lighting the cigarette; we also, apparently, built fewer pools and swam in them more carefully. The insurance actuary was pleased on both fronts.
US cigarette consumption fell from about 378 billion sticks in 2005 to 250 billion in 2015, a decline driven by smoking bans, price increases, and the arrival of e-cigarettes at the tail; pool drowning deaths fell from around 3,700 to 3,100 in the same window, as the suburbs aged past the peak pool-owning generation, CPSC fence and suction-cover rules tightened, and new homes were more likely to have no pool than have one. Both are stories of the American home becoming, gradually, a less dangerous place — though not for reasons anyone announced at a press conference.
The ashtray emptied. The pool, quieter. Neither improvement produced a holiday.
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Want to learn more about why correlations like “US cigarette consumption” vs “Swimming pool drowning deaths in the US” don't prove causation? Read our guide to statistical thinking.
