Swimming pool drowning deaths in the USCosmetic procedures in the US
It is a truth universally acknowledged that as Americans have become increasingly committed to having their faces, breasts, and whatever else sits beneath their skin rearranged by medical professionals, they have simultaneously become better at not drowning in swimming pools. One might expect these two phenomena to have nothing whatsoever to do with each other, which is precisely what makes the 96 percent correlation between them so deeply, cosmically irritating. Somewhere, a pattern-seeking neuron is firing with entirely unjustified satisfaction.
Both 2020 spikes trace back to the same home. Cosmetic procedures surged as Zoom-face anxiety turned home offices into mirrors, while backyard-pool deaths rose as distracted remote-working parents let unsupervised summers stretch too long. The common variable isn't vanity or water; it's the kitchen-table office.
What we have stumbled upon is not a secret handshake between vanity and water safety, but rather the shadow of the same economic forces moving through two entirely separate domains of human behaviour. This is how spurious correlations happen: not through cosmic conspiracy, but through our magnificent talent for noticing when two unrelated things happen to move in the same direction. The universe contains many such pairs, and we will likely find them all.
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Want to learn more about why correlations like “Swimming pool drowning deaths in the US” vs “Cosmetic procedures in the US” don't prove causation? Read our guide to statistical thinking.