Pedestrian traffic fatalitiesUS plant-based milk total retail sales
US pedestrian traffic fatalities and plant-based milk retail sales have risen together since 2012 with a 0.97 correlation, which is one of the more uncomfortable findings on this website. Plant-based milk sales grew from under $1 billion to over $2.6 billion by 2022. Pedestrian deaths climbed from around 4,700 to over 7,000 annually. The oat milk did not kill anyone. Probably.
Pedestrian fatalities rose sharply through the 2010s for documented reasons: smartphone distraction among both drivers and pedestrians, the shift toward larger and higher-riding SUVs and trucks with greater pedestrian impact severity, and increased vehicle miles traveled. Plant-based milk sales grew over the same period driven by lactose intolerance awareness, environmental consciousness, and the entry of major brands like Oatly into the US market around 2017. Both curves trend upward through the 2010s for entirely independent reasons, sharing only the dimension of time.
A rising trend and another rising trend are not a theory; they are a coincidence waiting for an overconfident analyst. The real explanations for both curves are well-understood and have nothing to do with each other.
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Want to learn more about why correlations like “Pedestrian traffic fatalities” vs “US plant-based milk total retail sales” don't prove causation? Read our guide to statistical thinking.
