Firearms found at TSA checkpoints

From 2009 to 2022, the number of firearms intercepted at airport security checkpoints tracked pedestrian deaths with an enthusiasm that should concern everyone involved in either statistic. A correlation of 0.97 suggests that for every additional gun TSA agents pulled from a carry-on bag, approximately a corresponding number of pedestrians met their end on American roads. The TSA has not claimed credit for this. The roads have not apologized.

Both metrics are driven by long-term growth in American travel activity and population movement. More people flying means more passengers, which increases the baseline probability of catching someone who forgot — or chose not to forget — that they had a firearm. TSA firearm detections grew from roughly 1,100 in 2009 to over 6,500 in 2022. Pedestrian fatalities rose from around 4,100 in 2009 to over 7,500 in 2022, driven largely by the rise of large SUVs, distracted driving, and smartphone use among pedestrians. Both figures track increased mobility and its associated risks.

Two dangers of a mobile society — distracted streets and distracted travelers — can correlate simply because both are symptoms of more people moving around more carelessly. The numbers are related not by cause but by the shared condition of a country perpetually in transit.