It turns out that the United States Government's approach to fiscal responsibility and the world's approach to audio content have decided, quite independently and with no knowledge of each other whatsoever, to follow precisely the same upward trajectory for thirteen years. One might almost think they were in cahoots, though the likelihood of the Federal Reserve and a podcaster in Milwaukee coordinating their efforts seems, upon reflection, rather low. Still, here we are.
This one is almost comically about 2020. The US national debt ballooned by nearly five trillion dollars as covid relief flooded out of Washington, while the podcast count surged as millions of locked-down would-be broadcasters started recording. Both lines bend at the same moment because the same crisis was underwriting both.
What we're witnessing is less a causal relationship than a shared parent: economic cycles and technological adoption drive both phenomena with such vigorous enthusiasm that they simply happen to move in tandem. This should probably make us feel suspicious of correlations generally, though it almost certainly won't. The real question isn't why these numbers dance together, but why we keep assuming they're doing the tango.
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Want to learn more about why correlations like “US national debt” vs “Number of podcasts worldwide” don't prove causation? Read our guide to statistical thinking.