US cigarette consumption

Between 2002 and 2011, US music CD shipments and cigarette consumption both declined together at r = 0.9653, a correlation that perfectly captures the vibes of the early 21st century: two industries being disrupted simultaneously, one by the iPod and one by the patch. The American who stopped buying CDs at Tower Records is the same American who stopped buying Marlboros at the gas station, and both decisions were made in roughly the same decade for roughly the same reason: a better alternative became available. The CD and the cigarette are twin relics of the 20th century, mourned only by nostalgia and the convenience store industry.

CD shipments fell from roughly 800 million units in 2002 to under 250 million by 2011, destroyed by digital piracy, iTunes, and eventually streaming. Cigarette consumption declined from approximately 380 billion cigarettes in 2002 to under 300 billion by 2011, driven by smoking bans, tax increases, public health campaigns, and the emergence of vaping. Both declines reflect the obsolescence of physical-format consumer habits in the face of digital and health-driven alternatives, operating through entirely independent market disruptions.

Two industries simultaneously disrupted by modernity will produce a strong correlation as they decline together. The CD and the cigarette were both casualties of the 2000s, and their shared decline is a portrait of an era, not a causal relationship.