Firearms found at TSA checkpointsUK average pint of lager price
Between 2010 and 2023, firearms found at TSA checkpoints and the UK average pint of lager price both increased, correlating at 0.964 across twelve data points. The theory that expensive British beer is driving Americans to bring guns to airports has no evidentiary basis but captures something true about the escalating absurdity of the 2010s. Both numbers went up. One reflects an armed society becoming more forgetful; the other reflects an inflationary economy becoming more expensive. Together they describe a world that is simultaneously more dangerous and more overpriced.
TSA firearm discoveries grew from roughly 1,100 in 2010 to over 6,500 by 2023, driven by increased gun ownership, concealed carry permit expansion, and improved screening technology. UK pint prices rose due to inflation and excise duties. Both are upward trends across 12 years driven by independent forces—gun culture and monetary policy—on different continents.
An American security metric and a British price metric will correlate when both trend upward over the same period. The firearms and the lager share a direction and a decade, not a continent or a cause.
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Want to learn more about why correlations like “Firearms found at TSA checkpoints” vs “UK average pint of lager price” don't prove causation? Read our guide to statistical thinking.