Pedestrian traffic fatalities

It appears that as we have launched more rockets into space, more pedestrians have been struck by cars on the ground, which is either a damning indictment of our ability to manage transportation at any altitude or a reminder that the universe allocates its tragedies without regard for vertical direction. Between 2002 and 2022, commercial space launches and pedestrian deaths moved upward together across twenty-one data points with the grim reliability of a schedule no one asked for. One cannot help but notice that we are getting better at leaving the planet and worse at walking across it.

Commercial space launches grew from a handful per year in the early 2000s to over 80 by 2022, driven almost entirely by SpaceX's reusable rocket program and the broader commercialization of low Earth orbit. Pedestrian fatalities rose during the same period as urban populations swelled, vehicles grew larger and heavier (the average new car gained about 400 pounds between 2002 and 2022), and smartphone distraction added a new variable to the ancient equation of cars and people sharing the same space. Both trends are products of a wealthier, more technologically ambitious society that has not yet figured out how to reconcile its appetite for progress with the fragility of the human body at street level. The shared driver is economic growth and technological investment.

We have built a civilization that can land a rocket on a barge in the ocean but cannot reliably prevent its citizens from being hit by cars while walking to the store, which is either inspiring or depressing depending on where you are standing. The launches will continue, the fatalities will continue, and the correlation will continue to mean nothing. Space, at least, is getting safer.