Electric vehicles registered in the US

Americans have been registering electric vehicles and buying lottery tickets with almost identical enthusiasm, a correlation that suggests the same optimism required to believe a 50,000-dollar car will save the planet also fuels the belief that a two-dollar ticket will change your life. Between 2011 and 2023, both trends climbed steadily, producing a correlation of 0.971 that says something about American faith in unlikely returns on investment. The expected value of both purchases is, statistically speaking, debatable.

EV registrations grew from about 17,000 in 2011 to over 3 million by 2023, driven by Tesla's market creation, falling battery costs, and a network of federal and state incentives. Lottery ticket sales grew from about 56 billion to over 107 billion during the same period, fueled by larger jackpots (Powerball and Mega Millions both redesigned their odds to create more headline-grabbing prizes), mobile purchasing options, and the general expansion of state lottery programs. Both trends track the same underlying variable: total consumer spending in a growing economy. Americans had more money, and they spent it on both electric vehicles and lottery tickets, because a rising tide lifts all consumer categories, including the aspirational and the irrational.

Thirteen years of EVs and lottery tickets rising together is a study in American optimism: the belief that technology will solve the climate and that luck will solve everything else. Both purchases involve a certain leap of faith, a willingness to pay today for a better tomorrow that may or may not arrive. The EV charges overnight. The lottery ticket expires at midnight. Hope, apparently, is a growth market.