Pumpkin spice products on shelvesDeaths from falling out of bed in the US
As pumpkin spice products have proliferated, bed-fall deaths have risen, a correlation of 0.983 that adds autumnal flavoring to the bed-fall correlation catalog with the seasonal precision of a coefficient that peaks every September. The spice launches, the body falls, and the chart records both with the warm composure of a trend line that smells like cinnamon and tastes like statistical coincidence.
Pumpkin spice products grew from about 60 to over 150 SKUs. Bed-fall deaths rose with the aging population. Seventeen years, both up, same result. The pumpkin spice consumers and the bed-fall victims are different demographics. The coefficient is the product of shared direction, not shared season.
Seventeen years of pumpkin spice and bed falls is another entry in the bed-fall catalog, now spanning from atmospheric CO2 to seasonal flavoring. The spice is limited time, the correlation is indefinite, and the bed rail remains the only variable that matters. PSL: Perfectly Spurious Line.
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Want to learn more about why correlations like “Pumpkin spice products on shelves” vs “Deaths from falling out of bed in the US” don't prove causation? Read our guide to statistical thinking.