As Costco's revenue has grown, Tesla deliveries have grown, a correlation of 0.985 that connects bulk toilet paper to electric vehicles with the suburban confidence of a chart that knows exactly what the American household looks like: a two-car garage with a Model Y and a pallet of Kirkland Signature paper towels. The membership card and the charging cable are both signs of the same thing: a household with enough income and enough garage space.
Costco revenue grew from about 116 billion to over 242 billion between 2015 and 2023. Tesla deliveries grew from about 50,000 to over 1.8 million. Both serve the same affluent suburban household: Costco's membership model selects for homeowners with storage space and disposable income, and Tesla's price point selects for the same demographic. Both also benefited from the same post-pandemic consumer spending surge. The Venn diagram of Costco members and Tesla owners is substantial.
Nine years of Costco and Tesla is a portrait of the upper-middle-class American household with stunning specificity: enough garage space for both the car and the shopping haul, enough income for both the membership and the lease, and enough commitment to efficiency to buy both in the same trip. The EV charges in the garage. The rotisserie chicken sits in the fridge. The correlation is just a household budget.
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Want to learn more about why correlations like “Costco annual revenue” vs “Tesla vehicles delivered” don't prove causation? Read our guide to statistical thinking.