Music CD units shipped in the US

Between 2005 and 2011, the cost of a Super Bowl ad rose as CD shipments collapsed, and the two have traced a near-perfect inverse (r = -0.957) across a short, specific window in which American media economics dramatically rewired itself. The premium on live attention went up; the value of physical format went down. Both trends have continued, but the specific years 2005-2011 compressed the argument into its cleanest form.

Super Bowl 30-second ad costs grew from $2.4 million in 2005 to $3 million by 2011 (before continuing to $7 million by 2024), climbing steadily as broadcast TV hemorrhaged everything except live sports; US CD shipments fell from about 705 million units in 2005 to under 240 million by 2011, as iTunes' 99-cent single and then Spotify's streaming launch turned the album from a manufactured object into an audio file. Both are stories of the same 2005-2011 inflection: live sports became the last scarce attention, and recorded music became the first abundant commodity, and the advertising dollars followed accordingly.

The CD was ripped, then discarded. The halftime commercial played once and never again. One decade, two formats, divergent fates.