Between 2005 and 2021, as US GDP per capita rose from roughly $44,000 to $63,000, Americans choked on food in steadily increasing numbers, maintaining an r of 0.9677 with the nation's growing wealth. The prosperity-choking nexus has long been suspected by economists who study what happens when a population can afford more food and less time to eat it. One could argue this is the most literal possible illustration of 'dying of success.' The data does not specify whether the victims were eating at nicer restaurants, but the GDP figures suggest they could afford to.
Both series reflect demographic and structural trends in the US over 17 years rather than any direct relationship. Choking deaths, which number around 5,000 annually, increase partly due to an aging population — elderly individuals are significantly more vulnerable to choking — and the US population has been aging continuously across this period. GDP per capita also rises continuously in most years, driven by productivity growth and inflation. Both are consequently upward-trending series that correlate with each other for the same reason they each correlate with calendar year: time passes, the population ages, the economy grows.
Aging populations generate correlation goldmines because so many health metrics worsen over time while so many economic metrics improve, creating anti-correlated and correlated pairs with equal mechanical ease. The takeaway is less about food and more about how demographic momentum silently drives dozens of apparently unrelated statistics in the same direction.
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Want to learn more about why correlations like “US GDP per capita” vs “Choking deaths on food in the US” don't prove causation? Read our guide to statistical thinking.
