Choking deaths on food in the USUS counties reporting good air quality days
It turns out that Americans have been choking to death on food in direct proportion to the number of days their counties decided the air was worth breathing, a correlation so tight (r=0.952) that one wonders if the universe is simply testing whether we can spot a pattern without understanding it. We have somehow synchronised our asphyxiation with our atmospheric contentment. The whole thing suggests that either good air quality makes us complacent enough to inhale a sandwich whole, or that something far stranger is happening in the background, quietly orchestrating both variables like a cosmic accountant with a sense of irony.
The likely culprit is probably population growth and urbanisation between 2005 and 2021. As counties got wealthier and more densely populated, they also invested in air quality regulation and monitoring, which means they'd report more good air days, but wealthier, more urban populations also tend to eat faster and more casually—grab a bagel while scrolling, that sort of thing. Then there's the seasonal echo: winter months bring both cleaner air (less pollen, more atmospheric stability in certain regions) and holiday eating binges. Add in that food choking actually increased about 20% over this period while good air quality days fluctuated but generally improved, and you've got two populations simply aging and densifying in ways that independently push both needles forward.
What we're glimpsing here is the uncomfortable truth that nearly any two trends measured over the same years will find some way to shake hands, particularly if they're both responding to a third thing entirely—in this case, the slow American rewrite of how we live, eat, breathe, and die in cities. We see the dance; we rarely see the dancer. Patterns are just noise that got lucky.
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Want to learn more about why correlations like “Choking deaths on food in the US” vs “US counties reporting good air quality days” don't prove causation? Read our guide to statistical thinking.