US coal productionChoking deaths on food in the US
Between 2005 and 2021, choking deaths on food increased while US coal production declined, producing an inverse correlation of -0.9626 across seventeen data points. The environmental reading is hopeful: as America cleans up its energy supply, it chokes on its dinner. Neither reading is correct, but both are more interesting than the truth, which is that demographic aging drives one trend up and cheap natural gas drives the other down, and seventeen years is long enough for the two to look related.
Choking deaths rose due to population aging. Coal production declined from 1.1 billion tons to under 600 million, driven by cheap natural gas and renewables. Both are 17-year trends moving in opposite directions for independent reasons.
A rising mortality statistic and a declining energy source will produce an inverse correlation when both are driven by independent secular trends. The data describes two stories about the same aging, transitioning nation.
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Want to learn more about why correlations like “US coal production” vs “Choking deaths on food in the US” don't prove causation? Read our guide to statistical thinking.
