Organic food salesChoking deaths on food in the US
As organic food sales have grown, choking deaths have risen with a correlation of 0.992 that sounds like an argument against organic food and is actually just an argument against reading causation into parallel lines. The organic apple is not more dangerous than the conventional one. The elderly person eating either is the variable that matters, and the chart has never heard of demographics.
Organic food sales grew from about 14 billion to over 63 billion dollars. Choking deaths rose with the aging population. Both smooth upward curves, both seventeen years, both producing a coefficient that says everything about shape and nothing about food safety. Organic food is not a choking hazard. The aging population is a choking risk factor. The chart cannot tell the difference.
Seventeen years of organic food and choking deaths is a reminder that the most impressive correlations are often the most vacuous. The food is organic, the population is aging, and the coefficient is the product of two unrelated upward trends that happened to share the same seventeen years. The label is clean. The correlation is dirty. The statistics are pristine.
As an Amazon Associate, getspurious.com earns from qualifying purchases. Learn more.
Want to learn more about why correlations like “Organic food sales” vs “Choking deaths on food in the US” don't prove causation? Read our guide to statistical thinking.
