Choking deaths on food in the USGerman beer consumption per capita
As German beer consumption per capita declined from 2008 to 2020—a trend that would have horrified Bismarck—choking deaths on food in the United States rose, producing an inverse correlation of -0.9663 that implies a protective relationship between German brewing and American airways. The mechanism is unclear. Perhaps the collective sobriety of 83 million Germans is somehow making American meals more hazardous. Perhaps the decline of the Reinheitsgebot's output has created a spiritual vacuum that manifests as poorly chewed steak. What is clear is that seven data points cannot prove anything, and this particular seven data points should not try.
German per capita beer consumption has declined steadily for decades, falling from roughly 110 liters per person annually in the early 2000s to under 90 by 2020, driven by health consciousness, demographic aging, competition from wine and spirits, and changing social norms among younger Germans. US choking deaths rose due to the aging American population, with the over-65 cohort—most vulnerable to fatal food obstruction—expanding substantially over the same period. With only seven data points, the correlation is statistically fragile and reflects nothing more than two monotonic trends in opposite directions across a short window.
Seven data points is barely a dataset. Two trends moving in opposite directions over seven years will produce a high inverse correlation almost by default, which is a statement about sample size, not about the relationship between Bavarian lagers and the Heimlich maneuver.
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Want to learn more about why correlations like “Choking deaths on food in the US” vs “German beer consumption per capita” don't prove causation? Read our guide to statistical thinking.