Swimming pool drowning deaths in the USChinese students studying abroad
Chinese students enrolling in foreign universities at record numbers while American swimming-pool drowning deaths slowly decline. The negative correlation is genuinely accidental, two completely unrelated trends sharing a decade by the politeness of the calendar.
Chinese students studying abroad climbed from about 280,000 in 2010 to over 700,000 by 2019 as middle-class income growth and Anglosphere university expansion drove enrolment. US swimming-pool drowning deaths declined across the same window as anti-entrapment laws, fence requirements, and pool-safety education campaigns reduced the per-pool risk. Two unrelated trajectories on opposite paths, sharing a window because the same nine years saw progress in one safety metric and growth in one education-mobility metric. Different countries, different concerns.
Most negative correlations are stories of two unrelated changes happening at once. The decade had multiple agendas.
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Want to learn more about why correlations like “Swimming pool drowning deaths in the US” vs “Chinese students studying abroad” don't prove causation? Read our guide to statistical thinking.
