Choking deaths on food in the USChina resident patent applications
The idea that there might be a causal arrow from Chinese patent filings to American choking deaths is, we hope, not one the reader is entertaining, and yet between 2010 and 2021 the two numbers have risen together (r = 0.960) like cousins at opposite ends of a long table. Innovation in Shenzhen; incidents in Phoenix. The patent office does not have jurisdiction over the esophagus.
China's resident patent applications grew from about 390,000 in 2010 to over 1.6 million in 2021, reflecting patent subsidies, the 'Made in China 2025' initiative, and the country's transformation from manufacturing hub to IP-registering powerhouse. US choking deaths grew from around 4,500 to over 5,200 in the same window, almost entirely driven by adults over 65 whose swallow reflexes weaken with age. The two series are yoked together by nothing but the calendar — both are upward-only trends in a decade where many things went up — and the correlation is as real as it is meaningless.
Patents filed in Shenzhen. Food inhaled in Phoenix. The graph nods agreeably at both.
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Want to learn more about why correlations like “Choking deaths on food in the US” vs “China resident patent applications” don't prove causation? Read our guide to statistical thinking.
