US GDP per capita

As America has gotten richer per capita, more of its cyclists have been killed, a correlation that suggests prosperity is not equally distributed between vehicle occupants and the people they hit. The coefficient is 0.874 across twenty-one years, during which the nation's wealth doubled and its cycling safety declined, producing a chart that looks like a national priorities document nobody voted on. The GDP climbs, the cyclist falls, and the economy does not distinguish between the two kinds of impact.

US GDP per capita grew from about $38,000 to over $76,000 between 2002 and 2022. Cycling fatalities grew from about 660 to over 1,000. The mechanism is similar to the pedestrian-GDP correlation: wealthier Americans buy larger, heavier vehicles (the average new car weight increased by roughly 400 pounds), drive more miles, and live in suburban environments that prioritize car throughput over cycling safety. The same economic growth that inflates GDP also inflates vehicle size and road speed—both direct risk factors for cyclist fatalities. Unlike pedestrians, cyclists share the road with vehicles in a way that makes them uniquely vulnerable to the SUV boom.

Twenty-one years of GDP growth and cycling death growth is a correlation that contains an actual mechanism: wealth buys bigger cars, and bigger cars kill more cyclists. The economy grows, the vehicles grow, and the bike lane remains an afterthought in the transportation budget. Prosperity has a body count, and it is measured in two wheels, not four.