As the United States has imported more cheese, more of its cyclists have been killed, a correlation that connects European dairy farms to American bike lanes with the cheerful indifference of international trade data. The coefficient is 0.867 across eighteen years, during which both Gruyère imports and cycling fatalities climbed with the steady rhythm of trends that have found their market. The cheese crosses the Atlantic. The cyclist crosses the intersection. Only one arrives safely.
US cheese imports grew from about 250,000 metric tons in 2005 to over 430,000 by 2022, as American palates shifted toward specialty cheeses that domestic producers do not yet make at scale—aged European varieties, artisan cheddars, and the burrata that Instagram made famous. Cycling fatalities grew from about 780 to over 1,000 during the same period. Both trends serve the same urban, affluent consumer: cheese imports flow to the same dense metropolitan areas where cycling commuting is most popular, and both metrics rise with urbanization, disposable income, and the premiumization of daily life. The Whole Foods and the bike lane are in the same neighborhood.
Eighteen years of cheese imports and cycling deaths is a correlation that maps perfectly onto the gentrification of American cities: the same neighborhoods that demand imported cheese also produce cycling commuters, and the infrastructure serves one better than the other. The cheese arrives, the cyclist departs, and the road between them was not designed for either. The rind is protected. The cyclist is not.
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Want to learn more about why correlations like “US cheese imports” vs “Bicyclist traffic fatalities” don't prove causation? Read our guide to statistical thinking.
