SpaceX launches per year

It is a truth universally acknowledged that as Elon Musk's rockets climb higher into the heavens, more people on bicycles seem to fall off them onto pavement. This correlation sits at 93 percent, which is to say it's almost as tight as any relationship between two things that have absolutely nothing to do with each other could possibly be. We have managed to bind the trajectory of commercial spaceflight to the trajectory of cyclists meeting curbs. Which suggests either that the universe enjoys wordplay, or that humanity's pattern-recognition software runs on Windows 95.

The real culprit is almost certainly both datasets riding the same economic wave. From 2015 to 2022, the US experienced sustained economic growth that encouraged both venture capital into space startups and increased urban cycling as transportation—and recreation—boomed. More bikes on more streets means more opportunities for bikes to meet their fate. Population growth added another layer: cities were denser, roads busier, which turbocharged both SpaceX's launch cadence (more engineers, more funding, more ambitious timelines) and cyclist fatality rates. It's rather like noticing that coffee sales and car accidents move in lockstep without realising that rush hour causes both.

What we're witnessing is not causation but co-passengers: two entirely separate phenomena sharing the same economic tailwind and demographic trends. The correlation tells us almost nothing except that we live in a tightly coupled world where prosperity and traffic collide in unexpected ways. The universe doesn't care about our rockets or our bicycles. But it does seem to find it funny when we mistake coincidence for meaning.