Bald eagle nesting pairs in the USHornet, wasp, and bee sting deaths
As bald eagle nesting pairs have recovered across America, deaths from hornet, wasp, and bee stings have also increased, a correlation that suggests either that eagles are disturbing insect nests or that nature is reasserting itself across multiple species simultaneously. The coefficient is 0.877 across nine years, during which America's national bird thrived and its flying insects became more lethal, and the chart connecting them had the audacity to imply a relationship between talons and stingers.
Bald eagle nesting pairs grew from about 9,800 to over 71,000 between 2005 and 2021, one of the great conservation success stories. Sting deaths grew modestly from about 62 to over 80 per year, driven primarily by an aging population (anaphylaxis risk increases with age) and potentially by climate change extending insect seasons and ranges. Both trends are measuring the recovery and expansion of wildlife in different categories: eagles because of conservation success, stinging insects because of warming temperatures and habitat changes. The shared variable is environmental recovery—a healthier ecosystem supports more eagles and more insects, and both trends measure a natural world that is reasserting itself, sometimes inconveniently.
Nine years of eagles and sting deaths growing together is a story about a natural world that does not distinguish between the species we celebrate and the species we fear. The eagles return because the ecosystem improved, the stings increase because the climate warmed, and both trends are reminders that nature recovers on its own terms, not ours. The wingspan expands, the stinger reaches, and the correlation between them is simply wildlife doing what wildlife does.
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Want to learn more about why correlations like “Bald eagle nesting pairs in the US” vs “Hornet, wasp, and bee sting deaths” don't prove causation? Read our guide to statistical thinking.