Avocado consumption per capita

As Americans have eaten more avocados per capita, more of them have choked to death on food, a correlation of 0.991 that the avocado industry would prefer you did not mention and that no epidemiologist would find surprising, since the avocado is not the choking hazard and the aging population is. The avocado is perfectly ripe for exactly seventeen minutes. The correlation is perfectly meaningless for exactly seventeen years.

Avocado consumption grew from about 2 to over 8 pounds per capita between 2005 and 2021. Choking deaths rose with the aging population. Both are smooth upward curves. Avocados are actually quite soft and not a significant choking risk—the correlation exists because two monotonic trends over seventeen years will always produce a high coefficient. The shared variable is simply time passing in a nation that eats more avocados and has more elderly residents each year.

Seventeen years of avocados and choking deaths is a correlation that captures the mathematical truth behind every high r-value on this site: two smooth curves going up at the same rate produce an impressive number regardless of meaning. The avocado ripens, the population ages, and the chart draws its line through both with the cool precision of mathematics that does not eat brunch.