As NFL players have earned more money for playing a game, Americans have spent more money on lottery tickets hoping to earn money without playing a game, and these two trends have moved together for nineteen years with the harmony of two different dreams of sudden wealth. The correlation is 0.960, which is high enough to suggest that the same culture that worships athletic millionaires also funds state gambling operations with religious devotion. The expected return on both investments is, for most participants, essentially zero.
NFL salaries rose from 1.4 million to over 3.7 million average between 2005 and 2023, driven by television revenues that made the league the most valuable sports property on Earth. Lottery sales grew from about 52 billion to over 107 billion during the same period, boosted by larger jackpots (Powerball redesigned its odds in 2015 to create more billion-dollar prizes), mobile purchasing, and the expansion of state lottery programs. Both industries monetize the same American appetite for transformative outcomes: the NFL sells the dream of athletic glory, the lottery sells the dream of financial glory, and both have gotten more expensive and more popular as the economy has grown. They share a customer base, a cultural moment, and a business model built on hope.
Nineteen years of football salaries and lottery tickets climbing together is a story about a nation that believes in long shots, whether on the field or at the convenience store. Both trends measure the same thing: the willingness to pay for the possibility of something extraordinary. The odds are different, but the dollar amount keeps going up.
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Want to learn more about why correlations like “US lottery ticket sales” vs “Average NFL player salary” don't prove causation? Read our guide to statistical thinking.
