Here we have Costco, a warehouse where Americans go to buy seventeen pounds of cheese they didn't know they needed, moving in perfect synchrony with NFL player salaries, as though the universe had decided that bulk toilet paper and professional football were expressions of the same underlying economic principle. One wonders what cosmic accountant decided these two things should rise and fall together like synchronized swimmers who have never met. The answer, it turns out, is not that they are secretly the same thing.
Both metrics are essentially responding to the same expansive American economy and wage inflation that swept through the 2010s and early 2020s. Costco's revenue grows because more people can afford membership and because membership fees themselves creep upward year after year—by 2023, a Gold Star membership cost $65, where it had been $50 in 2010. NFL salaries, meanwhile, are tethered almost entirely to league revenues from broadcasting deals, which have roughly tripled in value over this period, creating a rising tide that lifts all boats, or at least all boats with extremely good insurance policies. Both are also riding the same long wave of inflation and GDP growth; you're essentially watching two different expressions of the same underlying economic current, which is somehow less interesting and more interesting at the same time.
What we have here is less a conspiracy and more a reminder that when you measure enough things in a growing economy, most of them will grow together, which is either reassuring or disappointing depending on your philosophy. The correlation tells us nothing about causation and almost nothing about meaning, yet both Costco and the NFL will continue their synchronized march, indifferent to our pattern-spotting. We are all just looking for connections in a warehouse.
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Want to learn more about why correlations like “Costco annual revenue” vs “Average NFL player salary” don't prove causation? Read our guide to statistical thinking.