Americans identifying as LGBTQ+

From 2012 to 2023, the percentage of Americans identifying as LGBTQ+ rose in near-perfect correlation with the US secondhand and thrift store market, with r of 0.97 across 12 years, which is either a profound statement about culture or evidence that thrift stores are performing some demographic function that sociologists have overlooked. The correlation is strong enough that one could theoretically forecast LGBTQ+ identification rates using Depop sales data, which would be a novel methodology. Both trends were led by the same generation, which is either causal, coincidental, or simply what happens when millennials and Gen Z do anything.

LGBTQ+ self-identification in Gallup surveys grew from about 3.5% of US adults in 2012 to over 7% by 2023, with the sharpest growth among Gen Z and millennials who came of age with greater social acceptance and visibility. The US secondhand market grew from roughly $11 billion to over $35 billion across the same period, driven by the same demographic cohorts embracing thrift as sustainable fashion, economic necessity, and cultural identity. Both trends are expressions of millennial and Gen Z values — authenticity, sustainability, rejection of mainstream consumer identity — playing out simultaneously in two different domains of life.

When a generation's values shift, they shift across every measurable domain at once, leaving researchers to find correlations that are real expressions of the same cultural moment. The data points at the people, not at each other.