US national debt

Between 2012 and 2022, LGBTQ+ self-identification and the US national debt both increased, correlating at 0.9631 across eleven data points. The politically charged reading—that social progress is literally costing the country—is exactly the kind of misinterpretation this website exists to prevent, and exactly the kind of misinterpretation that would go viral if someone made the chart without the context. The national debt went up because Congress spent more than it taxed. LGBTQ+ identification went up because younger people are more open. Both trends are irreversible, unmistakable, and unrelated.

LGBTQ+ identification grew from 3.5% to over 7%, driven by Gen Z identification rates and reduced stigma. The national debt grew from roughly $16 trillion to over $31 trillion, driven by tax policy, entitlement spending, and pandemic-era fiscal responses. Both are decade-long upward trends driven by entirely independent institutional and social forces.

Two irreversible upward trends across eleven years will produce a strong correlation. The national debt correlates with nearly everything that grew during the 2010s, which makes it a useful reminder that correlation with the debt is not a fiscal finding.