Between 2012 and 2022, the percentage of Americans identifying as LGBTQ+ and US GDP per capita both rose steadily, correlating at 0.9662 across eleven data points. The most provocative interpretation is that queer Americans are somehow directly responsible for economic growth, which, while flattering, confuses correlation with contribution in exactly the way this website exists to mock. The least provocative interpretation is that both numbers went up during a decade of economic expansion and social liberalization. The truth, as usual, is that eleven years of simultaneous upward trends will correlate whether they describe identity or income.
The share of Americans identifying as LGBTQ+ grew from approximately 3.5% in 2012 to over 7% by 2022, driven primarily by generational replacement—Gen Z identifies at rates above 20%—and declining stigma enabling more honest self-reporting. US GDP per capita grew from roughly $51,000 to over $76,000 across the same decade, driven by post-recession recovery, technology sector expansion, and monetary policy. Both trends are products of a society becoming simultaneously wealthier and more socially liberal, but through entirely independent mechanisms. The shared driver is modernity itself.
A decade of economic growth and social change will produce correlations between virtually any rising economic indicator and any increasing social metric. The r-value measures shared directionality, not shared causation, and modernity produces a great deal of both.
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Want to learn more about why correlations like “US GDP per capita” vs “Americans identifying as LGBTQ+” don't prove causation? Read our guide to statistical thinking.