US traffic fatalitiesObjects launched into Earth orbit per year
The number of satellites humanity has been placing into low Earth orbit and the number of Americans dying on US roads have, between 2015 and 2022, risen together at a correlation of 0.938. This is one of those data points that feels like it should mean something civilizational, and almost certainly does not. Eight years of parallel climbs. No conclusion available.
Annual orbital launches climbed from around 90 in 2015 to over 180 by 2022, driven by SpaceX's reusable Falcon 9 and the Starlink constellation buildout that followed. US traffic fatalities rose from roughly 35,500 in 2015 to over 42,500 in 2022, a brutal trend rooted in heavier vehicles, more distracted driving, and an enforcement vacuum that deepened after 2020. The two trends share no mechanism whatsoever: one is a reusable rocketry story, the other is the quiet carnage of the American road. Both are, however, children of the same decade of scale and speed, each rising for reasons specific to their own domains.
A correlation at the surface is not a conspiracy in the basement. The orbit and the intersection share nothing except an era. One we will keep. The other we will grieve.
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Want to learn more about why correlations like “US traffic fatalities” vs “Objects launched into Earth orbit per year” don't prove causation? Read our guide to statistical thinking.
