Total MLB stolen bases per seasonGlobal average temperature anomaly
The global average temperature anomaly and total MLB stolen bases per season have, between 2016 and 2024, risen together at a correlation of 0.906. As the planet has warmed, the basepaths have gotten busier. The two trends are not connected. Both, however, are warming up.
The global average temperature anomaly rose from about 1.0°C in 2016 to roughly 1.45°C by 2024, driven by continued fossil fuel emissions. MLB stolen bases per season climbed from around 2,500 in 2016 to over 3,500 by 2024, driven largely by the 2023 introduction of larger bases and pitch-clock rules explicitly designed to reintroduce baserunning speed to the sport. The two trends reflect entirely separate drivers — one planetary physics, one baseball rule changes — that happen to overlap on the same nine-year window.
Nine years of two lines rising together can describe two completely unrelated forms of increased motion on the same timeline. The atmosphere and the basepath are both busier now. Only one of them has a rulebook.
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Want to learn more about why correlations like “Total MLB stolen bases per season” vs “Global average temperature anomaly” don't prove causation? Read our guide to statistical thinking.
