Deaths from falling out of bed in the USBitcoin year-end price
Bitcoin's year-end price and US deaths from falling out of bed have, between 2015 and 2021, risen together at a correlation of 0.881. The pairing suggests either that bitcoin is disrupting sleep or that aging populations produce both bed-related fatalities and crypto enthusiasm. The actual explanation is, characteristically, less entertaining.
Bitcoin's year-end price climbed from around $430 in 2015 to over $46,000 by the end of 2021, with enormous volatility along the way. US deaths from falling out of bed rose from around 450 to over 700, driven by aging demographics and the increased fall risk in the over-65 population. The two trends share no mechanism but both tilt upward across the same seven-year window for entirely unrelated reasons. A volatile asset price and a slowly rising mortality statistic can produce high correlations over short, small-N windows.
Seven years of two lines rising together can describe one asset's volatility and one population's aging sharing a calendar. The blockchain and the bedframe are not connected. Both, however, contain some risk.
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Want to learn more about why correlations like “Deaths from falling out of bed in the US” vs “Bitcoin year-end price” don't prove causation? Read our guide to statistical thinking.
