US bicyclist traffic fatalities and the annual average price of lithium carbonate have, between 2015 and 2022, risen together at a correlation of 0.808. The implication that EV battery supply tightness is making cycling more dangerous is, in a highly circuitous sense, almost defensible. Both trends are products of the same decade's appetite for larger, heavier, more electric vehicles.
US bicyclist fatalities climbed from around 840 in 2015 to over 1,100 by 2022, driven by the SUV-heavy fleet with taller hoods and larger blind zones. Lithium carbonate prices rose from around $6,000 per ton to over $35,000 in the same window, driven by EV battery demand outstripping supply. The loose connection is that both trends are products of the same automotive electrification boom: EVs tend to be heavier than their gasoline equivalents, and heavier vehicles are more dangerous to pedestrians and cyclists in any collision. The causal chain exists. It is, however, extremely indirect.
Eight years of two lines rising together can describe a car industry whose electrification is making vehicles bigger and more dangerous to everyone not inside one. The battery and the bicycle are in adjacent stories. The heavier car is the shared variable.
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Want to learn more about why correlations like “Bicyclist traffic fatalities” vs “Lithium carbonate price (annual average)” don't prove causation? Read our guide to statistical thinking.
